Bari 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 24 as Bari welcome Spezia to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio San Nicola — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Spezia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Spezia's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bari, 1 for Spezia and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 39% | Spezia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 0.97 xG and Spezia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.757 / defence 1.217 | Spezia attack 0.855 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.052. Bari's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Bari games / 61 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Spezia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Spezia 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bari 0.97 / Spezia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.757 / def 1.217 | Spezia attack 0.855 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Spezia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Spezia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Spezia kick off?
Bari vs Spezia kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Spezia?
Bari 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Bari vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Spezia part of?
Bari vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bari and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Spezia?
Record (5 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 3 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Bari and Spezia in?
Bari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Spezia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.76) and Spezia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.20
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bari xG
Total xG
2.06
1.09
Spezia xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bari and 1.09 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 14W 26D 21L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 19L across 61 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.11 PPG, Spezia on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 10W 13D 7L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 8W 12D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.30 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Spezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 14W 26D 21L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 20D 19L in their last 61 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Spezia away?
Bari's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.43 PPG; Spezia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bari or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Spezia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Bari's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bari
4
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 63%, Spezia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bari and 30% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 40%; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bari's recent matches and 40% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 30% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Spezia tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 24, as Bari and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 0.97 xG and Spezia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.76 / defence 1.22 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 31% | Draw 31% | Spezia 38%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Spezia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.11 PPG, Spezia 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.