Juve Stabia 3-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Juve Stabia's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Juve Stabia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Juve Stabia 0W, Cosenza 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 52% | Cosenza 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Cosenza 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / defence 1.108 | Cosenza attack 0.913 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.091. Data: 25 Juve Stabia games / 63 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 27%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Cosenza 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Juve Stabia 1.46 / Cosenza 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / def 1.108 | Cosenza attack 0.913 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cosenza xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cosenza kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cosenza?
Juve Stabia 3 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cosenza part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 44% chance of winning, Cosenza a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cosenza in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.91x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.43
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.57
1.10
Cosenza xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.10 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 9W 9D 7L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 10L across 25 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 6W 3D 3L from 12 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.92 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 10D 10L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cosenza away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.75 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Juve Stabia 3-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cosenza?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 58%, Cosenza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Juve Stabia) and 50% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Juve Stabia's games and 67% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 50% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juve Stabia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Cosenza 3-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Cosenza 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 27%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 52%, Cosenza 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.