Juve Stabia 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Juve Stabia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
Cremonese — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.80 PPG, Cremonese 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juve Stabia, 1 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Cremonese 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Cremonese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.904 / defence 0.899 | Cremonese attack 1.231 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Juve Stabia games / 76 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 40% | Cremonese 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Juve Stabia 1.09 / Cremonese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.904 / def 0.899 | Cremonese attack 1.231 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cremonese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 21 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.24
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.35
1.26
Cremonese xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.26 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 15W 13D 11L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 16W 13D 10L from 39 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.49 PPG, Cremonese on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.59 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 15W 13D 11L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 16W 13D 10L in their last 39 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cremonese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.85 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cremonese in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 45%, Cremonese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 60% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 55% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Juve Stabia's matches and 60% of Cremonese's.
Do Juve Stabia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Cremonese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 46%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.49 PPG, Cremonese 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.