Juve Stabia 3-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Juve Stabia take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bari travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bari trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 50% | Bari 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Bari 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.897 / defence 1.095 | Bari attack 0.790 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.101. Data: 24 Juve Stabia games / 62 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Juve Stabia 0.90 / Bari 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.897 / def 1.095 | Bari attack 0.790 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bari xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Bari kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Bari kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Juve Stabia 3 - 1 Bari.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Bari part of?
Juve Stabia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 31% chance of winning, Bari a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Juve Stabia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Bari 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Bari in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.90) and Bari's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.85
0.95
Bari xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.95 for Bari, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 9D 7L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (7W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.38 PPG, Bari on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juve Stabia's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.12 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Bari in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Bari have gone 7W 12D 5L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Bari away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.64 PPG; Bari away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Bari runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 3, Bari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Bari 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Bari?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 54%, Bari 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Juve Stabia) and 18% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bari in 46%; Bari in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 36% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 18% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Bari tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Bari 3-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Bari 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Bari 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG, Bari 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.