Frosinone 3-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Alessandria have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alessandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Frosinone's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Alessandria's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Alessandria and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 54% versus Alessandria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 50% | Alessandria 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.60 xG and Alessandria 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.105 / defence 0.958 | Alessandria attack 0.757 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.105. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Frosinone games / 28 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 31% | Alessandria 16%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Alessandria 6.25. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Alessandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 31% | Alessandria 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Frosinone 1.60 / Alessandria 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.105 / def 0.958 | Alessandria attack 0.757 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Alessandria xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Alessandria kick off?
Frosinone vs Alessandria kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Alessandria?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Frosinone vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Alessandria part of?
Frosinone vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 53% chance of winning, Alessandria a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Frosinone and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Alessandria in?
Frosinone (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Alessandria (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.10) and Alessandria's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.76x) against Frosinone's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.22
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.40
0.80
Alessandria xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
31.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.80 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 12D 5L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alessandria sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Frosinone's home form reads 6W 6D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Alessandria have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Alessandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 11W 12D 5L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Alessandria away?
Frosinone's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.71 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Alessandria in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Frosinone
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Frosinone 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Alessandria?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 50% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Alessandria in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 50% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Alessandria tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Alessandria 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.60 xG and Alessandria 0.80 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alessandria landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Alessandria attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 53% | Draw 31% | Alessandria 16%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 50%, Alessandria 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alessandria's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.