Feralpisalo 0-3 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggiana make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Feralpisalo have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Feralpisalo at home: 0W 1D 3L from their last 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Reggiana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across their last 5 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reggiana are 0.60 PPG clear of Feralpisalo over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 40% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 50% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.00 xG and Reggiana 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.726 / defence 1.239 | Reggiana attack 0.789 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.178. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feralpisalo's projected output up. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 10 games and Reggiana's last 10.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.47 | Draw 2.89 | Reggiana 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 4 home games and Reggiana's last 5 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 50% (last 4 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.00 / Reggiana 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.726 / def 1.239 | Reggiana attack 0.789 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Reggiana xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Reggiana kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Reggiana?
Feralpisalo 0 - 3 Reggiana.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Reggiana part of?
Feralpisalo vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 29% chance of winning, Reggiana a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.73) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.79x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 10 games and Reggiana's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.89
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Reggiana xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.15 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 2D 7L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Reggiana are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 0.25 PPG from their last 4 home games (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 1W 2D 1L from their last 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 games (0.50 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.25 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Reggiana in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Feralpisalo and Reggiana, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Reggiana 1-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 50%, Reggiana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Feralpisalo) and 75% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 50% of games; Reggiana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 50% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 75% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 50% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reggiana run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Feralpisalo 0-3 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.00 xG and Reggiana 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Feralpisalo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Reggiana attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 50%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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