Modena 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Modena welcome Ternana to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Modena carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Modena, 1 for Ternana and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 52% versus Ternana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 42% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.896 / defence 0.980 | Ternana attack 0.893 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Modena games / 48 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 32% | Ternana 28%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Ternana 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 40% | Ternana 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 32% | Ternana 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Modena 1.27 / Ternana 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.896 / def 0.980 | Ternana attack 0.893 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ternana xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Ternana kick off?
Modena vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Ternana?
Modena 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Modena vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Ternana part of?
Modena vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 39% chance of winning, Ternana a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Modena and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ternana?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Modena and Ternana in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.90x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.08
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Modena xG
Total xG
2.31
1.04
Ternana xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Modena and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Modena and 1.04 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 13D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (12W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Ternana on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 9W 9D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Ternana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Ternana have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Ternana away?
Modena's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.57 PPG; Ternana away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Modena or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ternana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Ternana runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Modena won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Ternana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Ternana?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Ternana 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Modena) and 61% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Ternana in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Modena's recent matches and 56% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Modena's recent games and 61% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Ternana tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Ternana in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.04 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Ternana attack 0.89 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 39% | Draw 32% | Ternana 28%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Ternana 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.