Empoli 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia away from home this season: 0W 8D 2L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Empoli against 1.50 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Empoli 0W, Venezia 1W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Venezia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 51% | Venezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.28 xG and Venezia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.043 / defence 1.192 | Venezia attack 0.791 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.100. Data: 7 Empoli games / 7 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 36% | Venezia 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Venezia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 70% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 36% | Venezia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Empoli 1.28 / Venezia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.043 / def 1.192 | Venezia attack 0.791 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Empoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Venezia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Venezia kick off?
Empoli vs Venezia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Venezia?
Empoli 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Empoli vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Venezia part of?
Empoli vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 38% chance of winning, Venezia a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Empoli and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 3 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Empoli and Venezia in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.79x) against Empoli's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
38%
2.63
36%
2.79
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.32
1.04
Venezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Empoli and 1.04 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 8W 16D 21L from 45 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 17D 20L across 45 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Empoli against 0.91 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 3W 9D 10L from 22 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 0W 12D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Venezia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 16D 21L in their last 45 games (0.89 PPG), while Venezia have gone 8W 17D 20L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Venezia away?
Empoli's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.82 PPG; Venezia away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 50%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Empoli) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 46% of games; Venezia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Empoli's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Empoli and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 8, as Empoli and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.28 xG and Venezia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Venezia attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 38% | Draw 36% | Venezia 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 51%, Venezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.89 PPG, Venezia 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.