Empoli vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Empoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Benevento — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Benevento's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Benevento 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.16 xG and Benevento 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.886 / defence 1.258 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Empoli games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 31% | Benevento 38%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Benevento 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 31% | Benevento 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Empoli 1.16 / Benevento 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.886 / def 1.258 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Benevento (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Benevento xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Benevento kick off?
Empoli vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Benevento part of?
Empoli vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 31% chance of winning, Benevento a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Empoli and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Benevento in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Empoli's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
31%
3.23
31%
3.23
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.47
1.31
Benevento xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Empoli and 1.31 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Benevento's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Benevento in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.25 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Empoli or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Empoli 50% BTTS, Benevento 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Empoli) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Empoli have failed to score in 50% of games; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Empoli's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Empoli's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Benevento tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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