Cremonese 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sampdoria have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.50 PPG lead over Sampdoria (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cremonese lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Sampdoria 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Sampdoria 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.46 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.844 / defence 1.135 | Sampdoria attack 1.217 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.059. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sampdoria have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Cremonese games / 55 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 36%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Cremonese 1.46 / Sampdoria 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.844 / def 1.135 | Sampdoria attack 1.217 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sampdoria xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Cremonese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sampdoria part of?
Cremonese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 36% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cremonese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Sampdoria in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.84) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.22x) against Cremonese's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.63
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.92
1.46
Sampdoria xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.46 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 26W 15D 15L from 56 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 21L across 56 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Cremonese against 1.34 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 13W 7D 7L from 27 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 10W 7D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.32 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 26W 15D 15L in their last 56 games (1.66 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sampdoria away?
Cremonese's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.70 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
3
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Sampdoria?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 48%, Sampdoria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cremonese) and 59% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Cremonese's games and 67% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cremonese's recent games and 59% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 18, as Cremonese and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.46 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Sampdoria attack 1.22 / defence 1.40, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 36%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.66 PPG, Sampdoria 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.