Cremonese 0-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Feralpisalo encounter.

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Analysis

Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Cremonese (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Feralpisalo's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cremonese lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Feralpisalo winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Feralpisalo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Feralpisalo 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.53 xG and Feralpisalo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.022 / defence 0.852 | Feralpisalo attack 0.951 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.236. Data: 30 Cremonese games / 30 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 48% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 24%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Feralpisalo 4.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 30% | Feralpisalo 60%.

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