Spezia 2-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ascoli have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Spezia, 1.30 for Ascoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 1W, Ascoli 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Ascoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.856 / defence 1.093 | Ascoli attack 0.907 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Data: 30 Spezia games / 68 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Ascoli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Ascoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Spezia 1.10 / Ascoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.856 / def 1.093 | Ascoli attack 0.907 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ascoli xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Ascoli kick off?
Spezia vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Ascoli?
Spezia 2 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Spezia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Ascoli part of?
Spezia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Ascoli a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Spezia and Ascoli in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.86) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.91x) against Spezia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
Ascoli xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Spezia and 1.20 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 11W 26D 31L from 68 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 28L across 68 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Spezia against 1.15 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 6W 14D 13L from 33 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 11W 26D 31L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 19W 21D 28L in their last 68 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.97 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Spezia
0
Draws
0
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 2, Ascoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Spezia 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Ascoli?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 48%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Ascoli in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Spezia's recent matches and 48% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Ascoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Ascoli 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 37%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.87 PPG, Ascoli 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.