Cremonese 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Bari (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cremonese, 1.60 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Bari and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Bari 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.11 xG and Bari 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.893 / defence 0.878 | Bari attack 1.041 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.114. Data: 45 Cremonese games / 45 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 32% | Bari 32%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Bari 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Bari 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 32% | Bari 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Cremonese 1.11 / Bari 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.893 / def 0.878 | Bari attack 1.041 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bari xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Bari kick off?
Cremonese vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Bari?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cremonese vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Bari part of?
Cremonese vs Bari is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 36% chance of winning, Bari a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cremonese and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Bari 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Bari in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Bari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.89) and Bari's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.04x) against Cremonese's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.10
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.13
1.02
Bari xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.02 for Bari, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 12D 12L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bari's form line: 11W 21D 15L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bari.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 9D 10L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.09 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Bari in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Bari have gone 11W 21D 15L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Bari away?
Cremonese's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.77 PPG; Bari away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bari in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Bari 1-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Bari 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 50% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bari in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 59% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Bari tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 8, as Cremonese and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.11 xG and Bari 1.02 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Bari attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 32% | Bari 32%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.