Cittadella 1-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cittadella host Mantova at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's home record at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cittadella at 1.50 PPG versus Mantova's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cittadella, 1 for Mantova and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Mantova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cittadella trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Mantova trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 43% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 48% | Mantova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.47 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.948 / defence 0.924 | Mantova attack 1.016 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.040. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Cittadella games / 21 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 46% | Draw 32% | Mantova 22%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Mantova 4.55. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 50% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 46% | Draw 32% | Mantova 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Cittadella 1.47 / Mantova 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.948 / def 0.924 | Mantova attack 1.016 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mantova xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Mantova kick off?
Cittadella vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Mantova?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Cittadella vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Mantova part of?
Cittadella vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 46% chance of winning, Mantova a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cittadella and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Cittadella and Mantova in?
Cittadella (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.95x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.13
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
Mantova xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.98 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 7L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.19 PPG, Mantova on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 2W 6D 2L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 0W 5D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 9D 7L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Mantova away?
Cittadella's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.20 PPG; Mantova away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mantova in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cittadella
0
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cittadella 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 50%, Mantova 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cittadella) and 40% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 50% of games; Mantova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cittadella's games and 60% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cittadella vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cittadella's recent games and 40% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Mantova tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Mantova in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.47 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Mantova attack 1.02 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 46% | Draw 32% | Mantova 22%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 48%, Mantova 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.19 PPG, Mantova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.