Cesena 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cesena host Sudtirol at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cesena have posted 4W 1D 1L at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi — 2.17 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cesena) versus 1.00 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Cesena in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 73% and Sudtirol 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 64% | Sudtirol 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.93 xG and Sudtirol 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.401 / defence 1.457 | Sudtirol attack 0.990 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.069. Cesena carry an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Cesena games / 49 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 44% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 29%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cesena at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 67% | Sudtirol 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 44% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Cesena 1.93 / Sudtirol 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.401 / def 1.457 | Sudtirol attack 0.990 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Cesena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Sudtirol xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cesena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Cesena 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Cesena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Sudtirol part of?
Cesena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 44% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cesena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Sudtirol in?
Cesena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.40) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.74
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cesena xG
Total xG
3.47
1.54
Sudtirol xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Cesena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cesena and 1.54 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 6L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.36 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Sudtirol away?
Cesena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cesena and Sudtirol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cesena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cesena
2
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Sudtirol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cesena 1-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Sudtirol?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 60%, Sudtirol 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cesena) and 40% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sudtirol in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cesena's recent matches and 20% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cesena's recent games and 40% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cesena edge out Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.93 xG and Sudtirol 1.54 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.40 / defence 1.46 against Sudtirol attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 44% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 29%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 64%, Sudtirol 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.36 PPG, Sudtirol 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.