Cremonese 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.80 PPG, Pisa 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pisa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 53% and Pisa 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.34 xG and Pisa 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.021 / defence 0.944 | Pisa attack 0.959 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.069. Data: 49 Cremonese games / 49 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Pisa 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 60% | Pisa 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Cremonese 1.34 / Pisa 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.021 / def 0.944 | Pisa attack 0.959 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Pisa a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Pisa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.92
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
Pisa xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.97 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 15L across 49 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.73 PPG, Pisa on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 12W 6D 5L from 23 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.39 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 69%.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.83 PPG; Pisa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 48%, Pisa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 48% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pisa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Cremonese's games and 65% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 48% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pisa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cremonese 1-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.34 xG and Pisa 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 42% | Draw 34% | Pisa 24%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.73 PPG, Pisa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.