Carrarese 3-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio dei Marmi to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Carrarese) versus 0.90 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Carrarese's 20% rate and Salernitana's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Carrarese, 1 for Salernitana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–4 with Salernitana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Carrarese in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Salernitana in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 36% versus Salernitana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 36% | Salernitana 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.03 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.810 / defence 1.043 | Salernitana attack 0.532 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.095. Data: 25 Carrarese games / 25 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 36% | Salernitana 20%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Salernitana 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Salernitana's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Salernitana 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 36% | Salernitana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Carrarese 1.03 / Salernitana 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.810 / def 1.043 | Salernitana attack 0.532 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Salernitana xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Salernitana kick off?
Carrarese vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Salernitana?
Carrarese 3 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Carrarese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Salernitana part of?
Carrarese vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 44% chance of winning, Salernitana a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Carrarese and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Salernitana in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.81x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
44%
2.29
36%
2.76
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.63
0.61
Salernitana xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.29
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.61 for Salernitana, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese's recent record stands at 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 12L across 25 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.08 PPG, Salernitana on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 6W 3D 3L from 12 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Salernitana's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salernitana's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.92 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Salernitana away?
Carrarese's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.75 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Salernitana in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Salernitana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Salernitana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Carrarese 3-2 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carrarese 17% BTTS, Salernitana 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Carrarese and 25% for Salernitana.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Salernitana in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Carrarese's recent matches and 33% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Carrarese's recent games and 25% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Salernitana 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Salernitana 3-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.03 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Salernitana attack 0.53 / defence 1.04, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 44% | Draw 36% | Salernitana 20%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 36%, Salernitana 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.08 PPG, Salernitana 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.