Carrarese 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carrarese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Juve Stabia are 0.60 PPG clear of Carrarese in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Carrarese 0W, Juve Stabia 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 43% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.25 xG and Juve Stabia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.935 / defence 1.068 | Juve Stabia attack 1.181 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.117. Data: 44 Carrarese games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 30% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 37%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Juve Stabia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 60% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 30% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Carrarese 1.25 / Juve Stabia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.935 / def 1.068 | Juve Stabia attack 1.181 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Juve Stabia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Carrarese vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Carrarese 3 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia part of?
Carrarese vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 30% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Carrarese and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Juve Stabia in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.94x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (1.18x) against Carrarese's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
30%
3.37
33%
3.00
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Juve Stabia xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.41 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 12W 16D 16L from 44 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 12L across 44 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Carrarese against 1.45 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 4W 10D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Juve Stabia away?
Carrarese's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.62 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
2
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 38%, Juve Stabia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 48% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Juve Stabia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carrarese's recent matches and 62% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 48% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.25 xG and Juve Stabia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Juve Stabia attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 30% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 37%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.18 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.