Benevento 2-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Cesena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Benevento at 1.40 PPG versus Cesena's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Cesena trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 60% and Cesena 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Cesena 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.33 xG and Cesena 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.996 / defence 1.116 | Cesena attack 0.953 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.184. Data: 5 Benevento games / 43 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 27% | Cesena 35%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 100% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 27% | Cesena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Benevento 1.33 / Cesena 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.996 / def 1.116 | Cesena attack 0.953 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Benevento (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cesena xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cesena kick off?
Benevento vs Cesena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cesena?
Benevento 2 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Benevento vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cesena part of?
Benevento vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 38% chance of winning, Cesena a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benevento and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Cesena in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Cesena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.00) and Cesena's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.76
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Cesena xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Benevento and 1.26 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 0L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.40 PPG, Cesena on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cesena in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cesena in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Cesena have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cesena?
From 1 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Cesena have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Benevento 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cesena?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 60%, Cesena at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Benevento) and 40% (Cesena).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Benevento's games and 100% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cesena tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Cesena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Cesena 2-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.33 xG and Cesena 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cesena landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Cesena attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 38% | Draw 27% | Cesena 35%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Cesena 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cesena's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.40 PPG, Cesena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.