Benevento vs Ascoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Benevento welcome Ascoli to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.57 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 3W 3D 1L from 7 outings — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.57 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.71 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 2 for Ascoli and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Ascoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 57% versus Ascoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 43% | Ascoli 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.28 xG and Ascoli 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Ascoli attack 0.714 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 7 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 42% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 80% | Ascoli 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 42% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Benevento 1.28 / Ascoli 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Ascoli attack 0.714 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ascoli xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Ascoli kick off?
Benevento vs Ascoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Ascoli part of?
Benevento vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 42% chance of winning, Ascoli a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benevento and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
Record (6 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 2 | Ascoli 2W.
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.16
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
Ascoli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Benevento and 0.97 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.57 PPG, Ascoli on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Ascoli away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Ascoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
2
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Ascoli 1-0 Benevento.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 67%, Ascoli 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benevento) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ascoli in 33%; Ascoli in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benevento's recent matches and 33% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Ascoli tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.