Avellino vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to face Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Avellino are significantly better at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi than their overall form suggests.
Benevento (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Serie B outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Avellino — key trading statistics (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Benevento — key trading statistics (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Avellino 71% and Benevento 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 57% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.58 xG and Benevento 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.220 / defence 0.905 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Avellino games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 53% | Draw 28% | Benevento 19%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 5.26. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 50% | Benevento 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 53% | Draw 28% | Benevento 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Avellino 1.58 / Benevento 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.220 / def 0.905 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Avellino (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Benevento kick off?
Avellino vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Benevento part of?
Avellino vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 53% chance of winning, Benevento a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Avellino and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avellino and Benevento in?
Avellino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Avellino's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.75x) against Avellino's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.52
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.43
0.85
Benevento xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Avellino and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Avellino and 0.85 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Avellino against 1.57 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Benevento in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 71%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Avellino) and 43% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Avellino's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avellino vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Avellino's recent games and 43% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Benevento tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benevento in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.