Ascoli 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Venezia encounter.

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Analysis

Venezia make the trip to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to face Ascoli in Serie B (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Current Form

Ascoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Ascoli have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Venezia have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Venezia have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Venezia are 0.70 PPG clear of Ascoli over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Venezia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Ascoli 1–3 Venezia — a Venezia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Venezia — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 51% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Venezia 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ascoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.09 xG and Venezia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.931 / defence 0.894 | Venezia attack 1.235 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.242. Venezia have an above-average attack rating of 1.235, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from Ascoli's last 69 games and Venezia's last 69.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 30% | Venezia 42%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.54 | Draw 3.32 | Venezia 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ascoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).

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