Ascoli 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli at Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Ascoli are significantly better at Cino e Lillo Del Duca than their overall form suggests.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.73 in Ascoli's favour (1.83 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ascoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Empoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Empoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 33% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.53 xG and Empoli 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.043 / defence 0.991 | Empoli attack 0.913 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.253. Data: 6 Ascoli games / 44 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 45% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 3.70. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 67% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 45% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ascoli 1.53 / Empoli 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.043 / def 0.991 | Empoli attack 0.913 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Empoli kick off?
Ascoli vs Empoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Empoli?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Ascoli vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Empoli part of?
Ascoli vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 45% chance of winning, Empoli a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ascoli and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Empoli in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.91x) against Ascoli's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.65
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Empoli xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.13 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ascoli's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Ascoli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Empoli in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Empoli have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Empoli away?
Ascoli's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.33 PPG; Empoli away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Empoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Empoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Empoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Ascoli 1-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ascoli, 67% for Empoli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ascoli) and 67% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ascoli's games and 67% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 67% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ascoli and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.53 xG and Empoli 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Empoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 45% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 33%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.