Ascoli vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Cremonese at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.71 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.51 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.71 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 57% versus Cremonese 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 29% | Cremonese 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.60 xG and Cremonese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.983 / defence 0.983 | Cremonese attack 0.667 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Ascoli games / 7 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 54% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 5.56. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 75% | Cremonese 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 54% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Ascoli 1.60 / Cremonese 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.983 / def 0.983 | Cremonese attack 0.667 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Ascoli vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cremonese part of?
Ascoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 54% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ascoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.98x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.57
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.43
0.83
Cremonese xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
27.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.83 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli's recent record stands at 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 3L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cremonese away?
Ascoli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 75%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ascoli) and 50% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ascoli's games and 50% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ascoli's recent games and 50% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.