Venezia 0-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Venezia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 25 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Lecce's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Venezia against 0.90 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 58% versus Lecce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 66% | Lecce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.13 xG and Lecce 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.866 / defence 1.170 | Lecce attack 0.561 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.321. Data: 12 Venezia games / 50 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 32% | Lecce 27%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Lecce 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 50% | Lecce 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 32% | Lecce 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Venezia 1.13 / Lecce 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.866 / def 1.170 | Lecce attack 0.561 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lecce xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Lecce kick off?
Venezia vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Lecce?
Venezia 0 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Venezia vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Lecce part of?
Venezia vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 41% chance of winning, Lecce a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Venezia and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Lecce in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.56x) against Venezia's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.13
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.00
0.87
Lecce xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Venezia and 0.87 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 24W 8D 18L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 23L across 50 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 16W 2D 6L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lecce's away record stands at 2W 8D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.74 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Lecce in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 8D 18L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Lecce have gone 10W 17D 23L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Lecce away?
Venezia's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.08 PPG; Lecce away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Venezia or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lecce in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lecce?
From 3 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Lecce have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Lecce 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Venezia) and 29% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Venezia's recent matches and 33% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Venezia's recent games and 29% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Lecce tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Venezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.13 xG and Lecce 0.87 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Lecce attack 0.56 / defence 0.97, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 41% | Draw 32% | Lecce 27%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 66%, Lecce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.