Venezia 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AS Roma at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs AS Roma encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:30 UK time.

Form

Venezia (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AS Roma's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG clear of Venezia over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Venezia's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Venezia 1–2 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 62% | AS Roma 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while AS Roma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.17 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.774 / defence 1.042 | AS Roma attack 0.918 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.333. Venezia's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Venezia's last 23 games and AS Roma's last 61.

Result probabilities: Venezia 31% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.27 | Draw 2.98 | AS Roma 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 60% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).

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