Lecce 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lecce face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Bologna — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Lecce.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bologna trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 42% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Bologna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.725 / defence 1.204 | Bologna attack 1.161 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.329. Lecce's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Lecce games / 60 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Bologna 54%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 1.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Bologna 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Lecce 1.03 / Bologna 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.725 / def 1.204 | Bologna attack 1.161 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Bologna kick off?
Lecce vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Lecce vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Bologna part of?
Lecce vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 18% chance of winning, Bologna a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lecce and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Lecce and Bologna in?
Lecce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.72) and Bologna's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
18%
5.41
27%
3.67
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.89
1.86
Bologna xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
3%
34.68
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lecce and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lecce and 1.86 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 19D 28L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 27W 24D 9L from 60 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 13D 6L from 29 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.48 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 13W 19D 28L in their last 60 games (0.97 PPG), while Bologna have gone 27W 24D 9L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.17 PPG; Bologna away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Lecce or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lecce
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 41%, Bologna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 59% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 41% of games; Bologna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lecce's recent matches and 59% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 59% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Bologna tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bologna in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lecce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 24, as Lecce and Bologna drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lecce fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Bologna attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Bologna 54%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.