Udinese 0-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Genoa 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Genoa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 57% versus Genoa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 39% | Genoa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.54 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.979 / defence 0.905 | Genoa attack 0.755 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.287. Data: 51 Udinese games / 51 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 26% | Genoa 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 4.76. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 60% | Genoa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 26% | Genoa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Udinese 1.54 / Genoa 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.979 / def 0.905 | Genoa attack 0.755 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Udinese (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Genoa xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Genoa kick off?
Udinese vs Genoa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Udinese 0 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Udinese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Genoa part of?
Udinese vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 52% chance of winning, Genoa a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Udinese and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 3 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Udinese and Genoa in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Udinese vs Genoa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.79
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
Genoa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Udinese and 0.88 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 21D 19L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (14W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.06 PPG, Genoa on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 5W 11D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 11W 21D 19L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Genoa away?
Udinese's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.08 PPG; Genoa away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 62%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 42% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Udinese's games and 50% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 42% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Genoa tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 0-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.54 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Genoa outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Genoa attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 52% | Draw 26% | Genoa 21%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 39%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.06 PPG, Genoa 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.