Udinese 0-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Udinese face Genoa.

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Analysis & Preview

Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese in Serie A (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Udinese have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Genoa stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Genoa away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.00 PPG, Genoa 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Udinese, 1 for Genoa and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Udinese 0–2 Genoa — a Genoa win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 57% versus Genoa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 39% | Genoa 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.54 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.979 / defence 0.905 | Genoa attack 0.755 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.287. Genoa's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Udinese's last 51 games and Genoa's last 51.

Result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 26% | Genoa 21%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.91 | Draw 3.79 | Genoa 4.74. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 60% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 40% (last 10 away games).

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