Torino 0-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Torino face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino in Serie A (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Torino have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Torino at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Torino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Fiorentina have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.30 PPG, Fiorentina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Torino have won 2, Fiorentina 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2023, ended Torino 0–1 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 42% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 33% | Fiorentina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.20 xG and Fiorentina 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.849 / defence 0.739 | Fiorentina attack 0.849 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.209. Torino have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling Fiorentina's projected output down. Data: built from Torino's last 64 games and Fiorentina's last 64.
Result probabilities: Torino 44% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 21%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.25 | Draw 2.94 | Fiorentina 4.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 20% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 44% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Torino 1.20 / Fiorentina 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.849 / def 0.739 | Fiorentina attack 0.849 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Torino (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Fiorentina xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Torino vs Fiorentina kick off?
Torino vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Torino 0 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Torino vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Fiorentina part of?
Torino vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 44% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Torino and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Torino vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 64 games and Fiorentina's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.94
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Torino xG
Total xG
1.96
0.76
Fiorentina xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Torino and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Torino and 0.76 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Torino have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 23W 20D 21L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 27W 16D 21L from 64 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.39 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 32 home games (11W 12D 9L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 8D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.44 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
Torino (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Torino vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Torino and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 games (1.39 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 27W 16D 21L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Fiorentina away?
Torino's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.41 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Torino or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Jan 2022, when Torino won Torino 4-0 Fiorentina.
Torino's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Torino
5
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 3, Fiorentina have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Fiorentina 1-2 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Fiorentina?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 34%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Torino and 34% for Fiorentina.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 38% of games; Fiorentina in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Torino's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Torino's recent games and 34% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Torino's recent matches and 75% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Torino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 27, as Torino and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.20 xG and Fiorentina 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torino fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.85 / defence 0.74 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 44% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 21%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 33%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.39 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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