Napoli 2-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Napoli and Juventus meet at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Napoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Napoli's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventus have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Juventus's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Napoli, 1 for Juventus and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2023, ended Napoli 0–1 Juventus — a Juventus win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Juventus — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 47% versus Juventus 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 53% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.09 xG and Juventus 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.967 / defence 1.052 | Juventus attack 1.135 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.201. Juventus bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Napoli's projected output down. Data: built from Napoli's last 64 games and Juventus's last 64.
Result probabilities: Napoli 27% | Draw 30% | Juventus 43%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 3.71 | Draw 3.36 | Juventus 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Napoli 70% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 27% | Draw 30% | Juventus 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Napoli 1.09 / Juventus 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.967 / def 1.052 | Juventus attack 1.135 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Juventus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Juventus xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Napoli vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Napoli vs Juventus kick off?
Napoli vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Juventus?
Napoli 2 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Napoli vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Juventus part of?
Napoli vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 27% chance of winning, Juventus a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Napoli and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Napoli vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Napoli's attack rating (0.97) and Juventus's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.14x) against Napoli's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Napoli's last 64 games and Juventus's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.36
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.52
1.43
Juventus xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
15.56
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Napoli vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Napoli and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Napoli and 1.43 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli come into this having played 64 games, going 39W 13D 12L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 2.02 PPG from 64 outings (39W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for Napoli against 2.02 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Napoli's home form reads 19W 6D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.81 points per game from their last 31 away games (17W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.52 scored and 0.81 conceded. Napoli's scoring rate against Juventus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Juventus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Juventus
Blended
Napoli (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Napoli
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Napoli vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Napoli and Juventus in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 39W 13D 12L in their last 64 games (2.03 PPG), while Juventus have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Juventus away?
Napoli's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.03 PPG; Juventus away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Napoli or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Juventus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Napoli and Juventus, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won Napoli 5-1 Juventus on 13 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Napoli
2
Draws
3
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Napoli vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Napoli have won 5, Juventus have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Juventus 2-0 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Juventus?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 52%, Juventus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Napoli) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Juventus in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Napoli vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Napoli and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Napoli's recent matches and 36% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Napoli and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Napoli's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Napoli's recent matches and 61% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Napoli defy the odds to beat Juventus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Juventus 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.09 xG and Juventus 1.43 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against Juventus attack 1.14 / defence 0.79, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 27% | Draw 30% | Juventus 43%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Napoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 53%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.03 PPG, Juventus 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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