Sassuolo 0-1 Monza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sassuolo face Monza.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Sassuolo host Monza at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A (matchday 7). Kick-off is Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Sassuolo — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Sassuolo have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sassuolo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Monza stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.00 PPG, Monza 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Sassuolo's games and 60% of Monza's (from Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sassuolo have won 0, Monza 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Sassuolo 1–2 Monza — a Monza win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sassuolo trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Monza trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 57% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 59% | Monza 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sassuolo surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Monza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.97 xG and Monza 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.262 / defence 1.170 | Monza attack 0.910 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.109. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 44 games and Monza's last 44.

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 54% | Draw 24% | Monza 21%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.84 | Draw 4.09 | Monza 4.73. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 70% (last 10 home games) | Monza 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights