Bologna 3-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Empoli have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Empoli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Bologna.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2023, ended Bologna 1–3 Empoli — a Empoli win.
Empoli have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Empoli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Empoli 34%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.73 xG and Empoli 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.800 / defence 0.846 | Empoli attack 0.745 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.127. Empoli's defence rating of 1.503 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Empoli's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Bologna's last 44 games and Empoli's last 44.
Result probabilities: Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.65 | Draw 3.91 | Empoli 7.27. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Empoli have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Bologna carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bologna 1.73 / Empoli 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.800 / def 0.846 | Empoli attack 0.745 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bologna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Empoli xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Empoli kick off?
Bologna vs Empoli kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Bologna 3 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Bologna vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Empoli part of?
Bologna vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 61% chance of winning, Empoli a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bologna vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.80x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 44 games and Empoli's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.91
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.44
0.71
Empoli xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bologna and 0.71 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 16D 13L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 11W 13D 20L from 44 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.39 PPG, Empoli on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 9D 4L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 9D 10L from their last 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
Bologna (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Bologna vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Empoli away?
Bologna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.57 PPG; Empoli away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won Bologna 3-0 Empoli.
Bologna's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Empoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bologna and 33% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 29% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bologna's recent matches and 71% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Empoli 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Empoli 0.71 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Empoli attack 0.74 / defence 1.50, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 61% | Draw 26% | Empoli 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.39 PPG, Empoli 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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