Sassuolo 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AS Roma (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sassuolo face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Sassuolo welcome AS Roma to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 6W 1D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sassuolo's 30% rate and AS Roma's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sassuolo, 3 for AS Roma and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AS Roma trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 53% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 49% | AS Roma 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 0.92 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.007 / defence 1.070 | AS Roma attack 1.053 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.060. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Sassuolo games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 35% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 30% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 26% | Draw 35% | AS Roma 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Sassuolo 0.92 / AS Roma 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.007 / def 1.070 | AS Roma attack 1.053 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.19
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs AS Roma kick off?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Sassuolo vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs AS Roma part of?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sassuolo and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.89
35%
2.90
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.11
1.19
AS Roma xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.19 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 45 games, going 28W 8D 9L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.87 PPG from 45 outings (25W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 2.04 PPG, AS Roma on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 16W 2D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.40 scored and 0.84 conceded. Sassuolo's scoring rate against AS Roma's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 28W 8D 9L in their last 45 games (2.04 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or AS Roma away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.27 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and AS Roma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 46%, AS Roma 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sassuolo) and 27% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; AS Roma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 46% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sassuolo's recent games and 27% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.92 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against AS Roma attack 1.05 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 26% | Draw 35% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 2.04 PPG, AS Roma 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.