Parma 0-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Parma at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Genoa.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Parma and Genoa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Parma's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Parma's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Parma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Genoa (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Parma edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Parma 2–0 Genoa — a Parma win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 67% and Genoa 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 52% | Genoa 44%). Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Parma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.75 xG and Genoa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.992 / defence 1.267 | Genoa attack 0.732 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.325. Genoa's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Genoa's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Parma's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 10 games and Genoa's last 48.

Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.01 | Draw 4.26 | Genoa 3.73. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 70% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 50% (last 10 away games).

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