Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Thursday 31 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fiorentina are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fiorentina, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Genoa.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 55% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 45% | Fiorentina 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.08 xG and Fiorentina 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.865 / defence 1.159 | Fiorentina attack 1.324 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.302. Fiorentina have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Genoa games / 47 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 19% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 57%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Fiorentina 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Fiorentina 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 31 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 19% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Genoa 1.08 / Fiorentina 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.865 / def 1.159 | Fiorentina attack 1.324 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Fiorentina xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Fiorentina kick off?
Genoa vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa 0 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Genoa vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Fiorentina part of?
Genoa vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 19% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
19%
5.36
24%
4.15
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.08
2.00
Fiorentina xG
5.36
19%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
3%
39.46
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Genoa and 2.00 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 16D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.62 PPG from 47 outings (21W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 8W 9D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.72 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Fiorentina away?
Genoa's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.43 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Fiorentina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 56%, Fiorentina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Genoa) and 39% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Genoa's recent matches and 48% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.08 xG and Fiorentina 2.00 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Fiorentina attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 19% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 57%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 45%, Fiorentina 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.