Genoa 2-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Monza have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Genoa. A 0.90 PPG lead over Monza (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 2 for Monza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Monza 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.28 xG and Monza 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.811 / defence 0.948 | Monza attack 0.826 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.325. Data: 59 Genoa games / 59 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 33% | Monza 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Monza 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Monza 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 33% | Monza 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Genoa 1.28 / Monza 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.811 / def 0.948 | Monza attack 0.826 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Monza kick off?
Genoa vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Monza?
Genoa 2 - 0 Monza.
Where is Genoa vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Monza part of?
Genoa vs Monza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 39% chance of winning, Monza a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genoa and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 2W.
What form are Genoa and Monza in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Monza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.81x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.83x) against Genoa's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
39%
2.53
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.32
1.04
Monza xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genoa and 1.04 for Monza, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 17W 21D 21L from 59 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 27L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Genoa against 0.98 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 9W 12D 8L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 6W 10D 13L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Monza in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 17W 21D 21L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 19D 27L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Monza away?
Genoa's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.34 PPG; Monza away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 55%, Monza 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 41% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 41% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Monza tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Monza in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Monza 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.28 xG and Monza 1.04 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Monza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 39% | Draw 33% | Monza 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Monza 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.22 PPG, Monza 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.