Genoa 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Cagliari at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Genoa — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Genoa have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 0.60 PPG versus Cagliari's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Genoa have won 3, Cagliari 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2024, ended Genoa 3–0 Cagliari — a Genoa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Cagliari 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Cagliari 54%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.27 xG and Cagliari 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.817 / defence 1.054 | Cagliari attack 0.880 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.339. Data: built from Genoa's last 50 games and Cagliari's last 50.
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 35%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.72 | Draw 3.59 | Cagliari 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Genoa 1.27 / Cagliari 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.817 / def 1.054 | Cagliari attack 0.880 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Genoa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cagliari xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Cagliari kick off?
Genoa vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Genoa 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Genoa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cagliari part of?
Genoa vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, Cagliari a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genoa and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genoa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 50 games and Cagliari's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.59
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.51
1.24
Cagliari xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Genoa and 1.24 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 24L across 50 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.18 PPG, Cagliari on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 9D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 6D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.08 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 10W 16D 24L in their last 50 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cagliari away?
Genoa's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.38 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 12 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Genoa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genoa
5
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 4, Cagliari have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2026: Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cagliari?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Genoa) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Genoa's recent matches and 50% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Genoa's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Genoa's recent matches and 71% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, as Genoa and Cagliari drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.27 xG and Cagliari 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 35%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.18 PPG, Cagliari 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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