Genoa vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus AS Roma 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 51% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.85 xG and AS Roma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.875 / defence 1.165 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.321. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Genoa games / 45 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 18% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 58%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | AS Roma 1.72. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 60% | AS Roma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 18% | Draw 24% | AS Roma 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Genoa 0.85 / AS Roma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.875 / def 1.165 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.73
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 18% chance of winning, AS Roma a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.12x) against Genoa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
18%
5.51
24%
4.25
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.73
AS Roma xG
5.51
18%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
3%
31.06
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Genoa and 1.73 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 12D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (28W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 7W 4D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.14 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AS Roma in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, AS Roma 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Genoa) and 41% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 46%; Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Genoa's recent matches and 36% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Genoa's recent games and 41% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.