Fiorentina 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventus at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Juventus meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fiorentina 1W, Juventus 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Juventus 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fiorentina 46% | Juventus 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.23 xG and Juventus 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.103 / defence 1.086 | Juventus attack 1.096 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.180. Data: 48 Fiorentina games / 48 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Juventus 41%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Juventus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 50% | Juventus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Juventus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fiorentina 1.23 / Juventus 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.103 / def 1.086 | Juventus attack 1.096 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Juventus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Juventus xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Juventus kick off?
Fiorentina vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Fiorentina 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Fiorentina vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Juventus part of?
Fiorentina vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 33% chance of winning, Juventus a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fiorentina and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Record (4 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 1 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.10) and Juventus's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.10x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
33%
3.03
26%
3.84
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.64
1.41
Juventus xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.41 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 13D 15L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.98 PPG from 48 outings (29W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 11W 7D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.50 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus in 29%.
Defensively: Juventus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Juventus in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 13D 15L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Juventus have gone 29W 8D 11L in their last 48 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Juventus away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.74 PPG; Juventus away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Juventus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
3
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Juventus have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 61%, Juventus 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fiorentina) and 26% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 26% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fiorentina's recent games and 26% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Juventus tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Juventus in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Fiorentina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Fiorentina 0-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.23 xG and Juventus 1.41 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Juventus attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Juventus 41%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 46%, Juventus 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.