Cagliari 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 39%, yet in-form Genoa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cagliari vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Cagliari have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cagliari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genoa stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cagliari, 2 for Genoa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2023, ended Cagliari 0–0 Genoa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 54% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.43 xG and Genoa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.959 / defence 1.586 | Genoa attack 0.714 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.183. Genoa's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.586 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 10 games and Genoa's last 10.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.54 | Draw 3.93 | Genoa 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 80% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Cagliari 1.43 / Genoa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.959 / def 1.586 | Genoa attack 0.714 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.96) and Genoa's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 10 games and Genoa's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.93
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.77
1.34
Genoa xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.34 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 19D 13L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 24W 13D 11L from 48 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.40 PPG, Genoa on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Genoa have gone 10W 6D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.33 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 19D 13L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Genoa have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Genoa away?
Cagliari's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.83 PPG; Genoa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 12 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2026: Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 71%, Genoa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 33%; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Genoa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cagliari's games and 42% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cagliari's recent matches and 62% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Genoa 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and Genoa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.96 / defence 1.59 against Genoa attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Genoa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 11
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →