Cremonese 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 4 as Cremonese welcome Parma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Cremonese have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Parma trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 68% and Parma 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 61% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.44 xG and Parma 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.067 / defence 1.259 | Parma attack 0.781 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.087. Data: 3 Cremonese games / 41 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 26% | Parma 28%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 3.57. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 26% | Parma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.44 / Parma 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.067 / def 1.259 | Parma attack 0.781 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Parma xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Parma kick off?
Cremonese vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Cremonese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Parma part of?
Cremonese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 46% chance of winning, Parma a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Parma in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.79
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Parma xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.07 for Parma, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 18W 15D 8L from 41 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 18L across 41 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Parma heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 8W 9D 3L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.10 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Parma in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Parma in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 18W 15D 8L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Parma have gone 7W 16D 18L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Parma away?
Cremonese's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.65 PPG; Parma away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Parma?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cremonese at 75%, Parma at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cremonese) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cremonese's games and 55% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Parma tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Parma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 4, as Cremonese and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.44 xG and Parma 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.07 / defence 1.26 against Parma attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 46% | Draw 26% | Parma 28%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 61%, Parma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.