Cagliari 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Inter travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 5W 1D 4L at Unipol Domus — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Inter have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 encounters against Cagliari's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 49% versus Inter 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.23 xG and Inter 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.006 / defence 0.992 | Inter attack 1.227 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.224. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Cagliari games / 39 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 25% | Inter 43%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 30% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 25% | Inter 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Cagliari 1.23 / Inter 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.006 / def 0.992 | Inter attack 1.227 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Inter (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Inter xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Inter kick off?
Cagliari vs Inter kicked off at 18:45 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Cagliari vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Inter part of?
Cagliari vs Inter is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Inter a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cagliari and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 7W.
What form are Cagliari and Inter in?
Cagliari (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.01x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.93
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.72
1.49
Inter xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.49 for Inter, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 28W 6D 5L from 39 games, 2.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
On the road, Inter have gone 13W 3D 3L from 19 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.38 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Inter in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Inter have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.32 PPG; Inter away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Inter in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Cagliari
1
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
From 9 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 37%, Inter 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cagliari) and 47% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Inter in 53%; Cagliari have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cagliari's recent matches and 42% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cagliari's recent games and 47% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Inter tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Inter in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Cagliari 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cagliari 0-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.23 xG and Inter 1.49 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Inter attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 25% | Inter 43%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Inter 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.