Cagliari 0-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Inter travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 December 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 3D 5L at Unipol Domus — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Cagliari's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 61% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Inter 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.78 xG and Inter 2.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.861 / defence 1.104 | Inter attack 1.741 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.337. Inter's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.741 — the away xG of 2.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Cagliari games / 54 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 9% | Draw 15% | Inter 76%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 11.11 | Draw 6.67 | Inter 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Inter (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 40% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 9% | Draw 15% | Inter 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 50% | xG Cagliari 0.78 / Inter 2.57 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.861 / def 1.104 | Inter attack 1.741 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Inter (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
2.57
Inter xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Inter kick off?
Cagliari vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 December 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 0 - 3 Inter.
Where is Cagliari vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Inter part of?
Cagliari vs Inter is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 9% chance of winning, Inter a 76% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 3W.
What form are Cagliari and Inter in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Inter (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.86x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 2.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
9%
10.95
15%
6.68
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.35
2.57
Inter xG
10.95
9%
Home win
6.68
15%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
8%
13.07
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
1%
143.11
35%
2.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Cagliari and 2.57 for Inter, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 11W 16D 27L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 40W 11D 3L from 54 games, 2.43 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
On the road, Inter have gone 20W 5D 1L from 26 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.43 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Inter in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 16D 27L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Inter have gone 40W 11D 3L in their last 54 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.27 PPG; Inter away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Inter in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Cagliari
1
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
From 9 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 73%, Inter 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cagliari) and 62% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cagliari's games and 42% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cagliari's matches and 62% of Inter's.
Do Cagliari and Inter tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Inter in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cagliari 0-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.78 xG and Inter 2.57 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Inter attack 1.74 / defence 0.68, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 9% | Draw 15% | Inter 76%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Inter 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.