Cagliari 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Cagliari against 0.60 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hellas Verona in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 63% versus Hellas Verona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 55% | Hellas Verona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.951 / defence 1.335 | Hellas Verona attack 0.859 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.322. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Cagliari games / 51 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 34%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Hellas Verona 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Cagliari 1.72 / Hellas Verona 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.951 / def 1.335 | Hellas Verona attack 0.859 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Cagliari 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona part of?
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 43% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cagliari and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.86x) against Cagliari's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.21
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.24
1.52
Hellas Verona xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.52 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari come into this having played 51 games, going 10W 17D 24L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.98 PPG from 51 outings (13W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Cagliari against 0.98 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cagliari's home form reads 7W 10D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.68 points per game from 25 outings (4W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.08 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 17D 24L in their last 51 games (0.92 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 11D 27L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Hellas Verona away?
Cagliari's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.24 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Hellas Verona?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 76%, Hellas Verona 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cagliari) and 48% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Cagliari's games and 52% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cagliari's recent games and 48% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 1.52 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.33 against Hellas Verona attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 43% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 34%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 55%, Hellas Verona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.92 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.