Cagliari vs Fiorentina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Cagliari's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Fiorentina have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Cagliari's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Cagliari winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 47% versus Fiorentina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Fiorentina 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.30 xG and Fiorentina 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.725 / defence 0.881 | Fiorentina attack 1.004 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Cagliari's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Cagliari games / 47 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 37%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Fiorentina 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Fiorentina lead the H2H ledger, but Cagliari carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 40% | Fiorentina 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cagliari 1.30 / Fiorentina 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.725 / def 0.881 | Fiorentina attack 1.004 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fiorentina xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Unipol Domus.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.72) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.00x) against Cagliari's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.79
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.60
1.29
Fiorentina xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.29 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 10D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.00 PPG from 47 outings (10W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Cagliari against 1.00 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 8W 4D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.11 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 10W 17D 20L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Cagliari's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.27 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 32%, Fiorentina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cagliari) and 68% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Cagliari keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cagliari have failed to score in 41% of games; Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Cagliari's recent matches and 54% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cagliari's recent games and 68% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.