Shelbourne 3-2 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shelbourne (77%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shelbourne face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shelbourne's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
UCD have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, UCD have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.70 PPG lead over UCD (1.90 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shelbourne, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against UCD — UCD have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Shelbourne 4–0 UCD — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data gives Shelbourne an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 46% versus UCD 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 34% | UCD 53%). Note also that UCD surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Shelbourne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 2.37 xG and UCD 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.933 / defence 0.904 | UCD attack 0.681 / defence 1.723. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. UCD's defence rating of 1.723 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 70 games and UCD's last 70.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.31 | Draw 6.23 | UCD 13.62. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (77%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Shelbourne's last 10 home games and UCD's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 70% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 35 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Shelbourne 2.37 / UCD 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.933 / def 0.904 | UCD attack 0.681 / def 1.723 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.60
UCD xG
41%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 3 - 2 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 35) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 77% chance of winning, UCD a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.93x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.68x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 70 games and UCD's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
77%
1.31
16%
6.23
7%
13.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.97
0.60
UCD xG
1.31
77%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
13.62
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
9%
10.71
Win to Nil
42%
2.38
1%
145.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.60 for UCD, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 70 games, going 23W 26D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.57 PPG from 70 outings (9W 13D 48L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 13W 13D 8L across their last 34 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.41 points per game from their last 34 away games (3W 5D 26L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.64 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 23W 26D 21L in their last 70 games (1.36 PPG), while UCD have gone 9W 13D 48L in their last 70 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.53 PPG; UCD away: 0.41 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, UCD in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won UCD 0-4 Shelbourne on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2023: Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 53%, UCD 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Shelbourne) and 59% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 29% of games; UCD in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 41% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Shelbourne's recent games and 59% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 88% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out UCD 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 3-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 2.37 xG and UCD 0.60 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. UCD outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against UCD attack 0.68 / defence 1.72, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 77% | Draw 16% | UCD 7%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 34%, UCD 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
UCD's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. UCD (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.