Dundalk 2-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Bohemians and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 2–3 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.67 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.291 / defence 1.070 | Bohemians attack 0.911 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Dundalk games / 70 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 4.76. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Dundalk 1.67 / Bohemians 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.291 / def 1.070 | Bohemians attack 0.911 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 54% chance of winning, Bohemians a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.29) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.91x) against Dundalk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.97
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.62
0.95
Bohemians xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.95 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 19D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 27W 20D 23L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Dundalk against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 2.09 PPG from 35 outings (21W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 11D 13L from 35 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 32W 19D 19L in their last 70 games (1.64 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 27W 20D 23L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.09 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 60%, Bohemians 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Dundalk) and 37% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bohemians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dundalk's games and 51% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Dundalk's recent games and 37% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Bohemians 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.67 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 54% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 21%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.64 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.