Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shamrock Rovers face Dundalk.

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Analysis

Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Dundalk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Dundalk away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.10 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 2 for Dundalk and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Shamrock Rovers 0–1 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 45% versus Dundalk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 48% | Dundalk 45%). Note also that Dundalk surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Shamrock Rovers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.02 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.226 / defence 1.148 | Dundalk attack 0.980 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 0.938. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 58 games and Dundalk's last 58.

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 21% | Dundalk 19%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.67 | Draw 4.74 | Dundalk 5.22. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 60% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games).

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