Waterford 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waterford at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Waterford Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Waterford. A 1.10 PPG lead over St Patrick's Athl. (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 52% | St Patrick's Athl. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.48 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.216 / defence 1.207 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.871 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 0.952. Data: 22 Waterford games / 60 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 48% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 48% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Waterford 1.48 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.216 / def 1.207 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.871 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.251 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Waterford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 48% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Waterford 0W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 0W.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 1.22x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.87x) against Waterford's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.82
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.48
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Waterford and 1.00 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 11W 4D 8L from 23 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 10L across 23 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Waterford by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St Patrick's Athl. heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 0W 5D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.60 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
4
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, St Patrick's Athl. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 40% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Waterford's matches and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.48 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.22 / defence 1.21 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 48% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 52%, St Patrick's Athl. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.